Golden Globe Predictions--Part I!!!

I asked my ADTV pal, Clarence Moye, to predict the film categories for me. Check out his take on tonight's awards below!

It’s a fool’s errand to predict the Golden Globes.

First, the awards are given by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a body of international journalists who regard film and television through a completely different filter than traditional American audiences. Second, it’s widely reported that these journalists have varying degrees of credentials, some only posting enough output to just barely meet the criteria for membership.

Finally, the HFPA rarely like a sweep. They’re in it to largely spread the wealth among the assembled stars and studios to ensure attendance on their multi-million dollar telecast. 

So, putting all of that aside, here are my predications for tonight’s Golden Globe awards with brief justifications for each. I hold no esteem in my own predictions, largely going by gut feelings or things I’ve heard from other sources.

Take all of this with a massive grain of salt.

Best Motion Picture, Drama – Boyhood’s seemingly inevitable march to the Oscar podium feels like it will be repeated here, but I can’t decide if the persnickety Globes want to crown it first or if they want to go their own way. Two months ago, I thought The Imitation Game wins it in a cakewalk, but they didn’t nominate its director (Morten Tyldum, the worst name of a director ever in the history of film). If Selma had that screenplay nomination, then I would pick it – settling for second place here. Boyhood triumphs here again.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy – Birdman. Seven nominations in all the right places is a huge sign. It’s the closet thing we’ll have to a sweep all night.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama -  Eddie Redmayne wins here because it scores in all the right places for the HFPA: it’s showy, it’s a biopic, and he'll look great at the podium. This will be The Theory of Everything’s big (and possibly only) win of the evening.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama – Reportedly, the HFPA LOVES Maps to the Stars so I’m not so sure they’re going to award Julianne Moore here. They’ve done crazy things before (Sharon Stone over Susan Sarandon some 20 years ago rings a bell). I think they’re going with Jennifer Aniston (Cake) here, setting up some level of competition for Moore’s supposed engraved Oscar win. (Insert sound of Joey Moser crashing to the floor.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy – No one comes close to Michael Keaton in Birdman.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy – Smart money has Emily Blunt for Into the Woods, perhaps that film’s only win. I’m thinking they will award Julianne Moore here for Maps to the Stars over her plainer performance in Still Alice. I don’t discount Moore’s possibility of winning both, though. Possible. Very, very possible.

Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture – J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. Yawn, but good for him. This will be their tempo.

Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture – Patricia Arquette wins here in another pre-ordained award. They do love them some Meryl Streep, though. Remember they awarded her for Adaptation over the “inevitable” Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago. 

Best Director – I don’t think Richard Linklater is flashy enough a director for the HFPA who historically pick the most directed films over the most subtly directed films. Instead, they’re going to go with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman.

Best Screenplay – Flip a coin. I’m thinking they’re going to award something here that likely won’t win another award. Is that The Imitation Game or Gone Girl? I’m going with Game.

Best Original Score – No idea here. I could see any one of these films winning with the exception of Interstellar because even the HFPA wouldn’t sink that low. Birdman isn’t eligible for the Oscar, and the two Brit biopics may cancel each other out (although Desplat probably has a leg up). I’m going out on a limb with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Gone Girl.

Best Original Song – This category almost doesn’t matter because they omitted “Lost Stars” from Begin Again – a brilliantly orchestrated song that had to stand multiple versions within the film. I’m picking Selma’s “Glory” because my wife said it was good, and she’s smart people.

Best Animated Feature Film – The Lego Movie. I just fell asleep typing that.

Best Foreign Language Film – It’s between Ida and Leviathan, I suspect, just because those are the two films I’ve heard the most about in the last two months. After careful consideration (re: coin toss), I’m going with Ida.

For my television predictions, I’m (not giving it any more thought) sticking with my original predictions as posted on Awards Daily TV, a most excellent website that all of you should be reading.

If I may say so myself…