Will NBR's Supporting Actress Ever Line Up with Oscar?

The National Board of Review announces their awards Tuesday morning, and most consider it the official kick off to the awards season. Last night, I was looking at the major awards categories since 2000, and only one Best Supporting Actress honoree from the NBR lines up with the Best Supporting Actress winner of that year (Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona). Will this be the year that someone wins both awards?

Here's who the NBR awarded Best Supporting Actress to in the last 13 years (Oscar nominees are in bold):

2000: Lupe Ontiveros, Chuck & Buck

2001: Cate Blanchett, The Shipping News, Fellowship of the Ring & The Man Who Cried

2002: Kathy Bates, About Schmidt

2003: Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April & The Station Agent

2004: Laura Linney, Kinsey

2005: Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha

2006: Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration

2007: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

2008: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

2009: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

2010: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

2011: Shalene Woodley, The Descendants

2012: Ann Dowd, Compliance

2013: Octavia Spenser, Fruitvale Station

The other categories, especially Best Supporting Actor, are more consistent with Oscar. Is there a particular reason for this, or is it just coincidence? I'm not criticizing the NBR's choices at all. They might be one of my favorite voting bodies, because they sometimes recognize films that other awards ignore. The last 13 years in the Supporting Actress category supports that. 

It's odd that Kendrick was awarded when Mo'Nique rook almost every award that season, but Dowd's performance of a weary fast food manager is a great example of the NBR paying attention to smaller films. Dowd put up her own money for a Supporting Actress campaign, but she didn't receive good news on Oscar nomination morning.

Patricia Arquette won in this category at the New York Film Critics yesterday, and she seems to be the odds on favorite this year. Can she win at the NBR this morning and join Penelope in a small group of NBR and Oscar winners?