I've never predicted the Screen Actors Guild Awards before. I will say, though, that they are one of my favorite awards to watch for several reasons. It's a short show (it's like 14 minutes long). I always say that the Oscars should stop fighting the time test, because we always know it's going to be long. Embrace it. Secondly, I like the beginning of the show when the actors go around the room and say, "I'm an actor" after a tiny anecdote. Probably feeds into the idea of actors talking about themselves. I like it.
Thirdly, I always enjoy how the tables are perfectly lined up at the awards. You can tell a gay party planner let his anal retentiveness fly that evening!
The SAGs are different since they focus on just the performances. A lot of people also equate Best Ensemble with Best Picture, and I hate that assumption. I feel like that's how Crash had a leg up from beating Brokeback Mountain in 2005 (I might be making that up, because I don't know anything about the awards calendar that year). I always feel like casts with a lot of respected actors will be nominated, because of everyone's involvement. Let's get serious--I know nothing! With that proclamation, let's look at my predictions for the awards!
Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
I'm playing it safe here, and I think these five performances will be nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars. I almost replaced Hanks with Forest Whitaker, but I don't think actors will be able to forget the last 15 minutes of Hanks' performance in Phillips. It's too heartbreaking. Or could Leo DiCaprio get in for The Wolf of Wall Street? Ah!!! I am so confused!
Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Streep has been nominated 8 times, and she's fucking Meryl Streep in the role of a lifetime. I feel like they want to get Thompon in front of a microphone maybe (you know, other than she's supposed to be fantastic like she is in everything), and Blanchett has started taking awards already. Is this category, like Lead Actor, sewn up as well?
Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Will Forte, Nebraska
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
All right. I started throwing caution to the wind. Fassy and Leto are locks, and I think Forte is going to gain some serious momentum. Maybe I am thinking Gandolfini is going to get in at the Golden Globes, and he could here as well. People love him in that movie. I put Abdi there instead of Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. It's Hanks adjacent, right?
Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Scarlett Johansson, Her
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
I won't bet against Oprah, because she's Oprah. I won't bet against Lawrence, because she's supposed to be the best thing in the movie. Nyong'o breaks everyone's hearts in 12 Years. Could Julia Roberts get in for August? Sure! How about Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station? That's definitely a possibility. I went with Johansson, because Her has taken some awards and I don't think all the talk of her performance will go without notice. The Golden Globes have already said she won't be nominated for her voice-only performance. Again, I know nothing.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
Like I said, big casts. The nominations will be announced tomorrow.