Thursday, August 7, 2014

Very Early Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Here are our final performance predictions in our incredibly early Oscar predictions series!  Clarence and I discovered that Best Supporting Actress has a decent amount of ladies in contention.  We have already tackled Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor, so you can check those out if you missed them.  We will return tomorrow with a double whammy of Director and Picture!

Moser – Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Moye – Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars
Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

Moser: Rounding out the performance categories is Supporting Actress. I’m a huge fan of Patricia Arquette, so I’m glad to hear that she delivers great work in Boyhood. I hope she gets in.

Moye: As I forecasted yesterday, I believe Patricia Arquette to be the “sure thing” acting nomination from Boyhood. She appears to be the emotional center of the sprawling, yet intimate, family epic, and I wonder how many voters will superimpose their own mothers on her when considering the film. I’ve already seen various reactions all over Twitter implying the film resonates with audiences in that way.

Moser: I have been avoiding reading anything related to Boyhood, so this is great news! I am (hopefully) going to see it today. I have a nice relationship with my mother, so I might be a blubbering mess by the end of it. Arquette’s performance is one that I am most looking forward to. I hope she can keep the momentum throughout the rest of the season. Julie Delpy had some steam for Before Midnight when the summer ended, but it appears that Arquette has, from what I’ve heard, the more sympathetic performance.

It seems like you and I are always talking about Into the Woods, and here we are again!  Emily Blunt has the better character as The Baker’s Wife, but I can see them going for her AND Anna Kendrick as Cinderella. I personally wish Kendrick would gain some momentum for her lead work in The Last Five Years. That material is KILLER, but I think The Baker’s Wife will win out over Cinderella.

Moye: I’m also banking on Blunt’s lead role to weigh heavily in the Supporting category – that is, depending on how much they end up cutting of her critical role. At the end of the show, she’s the one that sticks in your heart. Kendrick will be great, I’m sure, but Cinderella isn’t really an emotional role, although she sings in the most emotional song of the show. If it soars, then she could be ride the film’s coattails much like Queen Latifah in Chicago.

No one from Into the Woods is alone...

Moser:  I never liked that Queen Latifah got a nomination for Chicago. I was nuts over that movie when it came out, but I always thought that Michelle Pfeiffer should have gotten in for White Oleander over Latifah that year. That’s a good comparison for the two women, especially because they are both musicals. Kendrick’s Cinderella could be really heartbreaking in the sense that a familiar princess realizes that her happily ever after isn’t what she wanted. Her world could shatter right before our eyes!!!  Her nomination might bank on her performance of “No One Is Alone.” I’ve seen many a Cinderella who can’t do that song justice. 

Moye: I’m with you on Michelle Pfeiffer. The movie overall was pretty soapy, but I count that performance among her top five. As for Kendrick, I hope she’s great in the film. Count me a fan.

Moser:  I am definitely a fan as well.  Since we are talking of two performances from one movie, it made me think of one actress maybe getting more than one nomination.  Do you think Jessica Chastain can pull off 2 nominations in one year?  I read somewhere (forgive me, I can’t remember where) that she has a pretty great part in J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year, and she’s one of everyone’s favorite actresses right now (see: Best Actress). 

Moye: If anyone can pull off two nominations this year, then it’s her. In fact, I have recently reconsidered her chances here and decided to go with her as well. I had Oprah Winfrey in for Selma, and, if Get On Up had been a bigger hit out of the gate, then Viola Davis could have been a contender. But I love Chastain, and I’m hearing really interesting things about this film.

Get On Back Up to the race, Viola!

Moser: As soon as I saw the trailer for Get On Up, I thought Viola Davis had a shot at a nomination for playing James Brown’s neglectful mother. She’s made down and plays a mother who tries to reconnect with her son. I’m not sure how big the part is, but her losing Best Actress a few years ago still stings. Looks like maybe the box office is going to hurt her, as you said.

Moye: Yeah, I’m kind of expecting you to change that up real soon now.

Moser: As you predicted, I took Davis out. I saw the new trailer for The Imitation Game yesterday, and it looks like Keira Knightley has a bigger part alongside Benedict Cumberbatch. She has been on my mind recently since I just saw (and loved her) in Begin Again. As for the last slot, I could go several ways. Laura Dern for Wild. Oprah Winfrey for Selma. But I think I am going to give my last slot to Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything. Give her and Redmaybe side-by-side nominations. How very A Beautiful Mind of me. 

Moye: Yes, Jones’ stock has risen since the trailer dropped, but it’s a wait and see for me. I’m glad you mentioned Laura Dern. I haven’t picked her yet (I thought her work in The Fault in Our Stars was intense and beautiful), but it feels like she’s quietly been everywhere this year. Instead, I’m going with a popular awards-season trope, the Stately Old Woman performance, which Vanessa Redgrave seems to give. I think she’ll easily make it in on overall love for the film. Finally, I honestly don’t know what to think about Julianne Moore in Map to the Stars. Yes, she won Best Actress at Cannes last May, but absolutely everything I’ve heard about the film screams niche tastes. I don’t see the Academy going for it at all, but she is beloved so I’m sticking her in Best Supporting Actress for now.

Moser: How could I have forgotten about Julianne Moore?! My favorite actress EVER! Julianne, I’m sorry! I think I will leave her out right now, because it might be too out there for the Academy. She looks bonkers in Maps, and I can’t wait. Moore is so fearless, so maybe the Academy will get their heads out of their asses and pay attention to her? She plays an actress desperate to land a role, and she just looks great. 

Moye: I’m sure other names will bubble up as the year progresses, but, if I had to pick a wild card right now, I’d say look out for Jane Fonda’s broadly comic turn in This is Where I Leave You. The film looks to be a nice ensemble piece, but her character is clearly the lynchpin. If June Squibb can flash a tombstone, then surely Fonda’s elderly sexual performance should be in the conversation.

Boob joke!!!

Moser:  I recently read This Is Where I Leave You, and it’s a great character. That book is a great story of fathers and sons, but the women are really colorful. In addition to Fonda, I’d say Tina Fey would maaaaaybe come into play. If they don’t tone down certain unlikable qualities from the book Fey could maybe get a Globe nomination. Fonda’s matriarch makes me laugh every time I see that trailer. That is one of my most anticipated films of the fall.

Moye: I’m there with you. The trailer is awesome, and I’m in constant search for something to give me that Terms of Endearment feeling again. Although I love her, I have a hard time considering Fey for acting nominations. She’s not a very natural actress. She always looks uncomfortable onscreen to me, which, if used correctly, can be brilliant. Looking back over the possibilities, it appears that Best Supporting Actress has a more robust pool from which to choose than I thought, and that’s always a good thing. This category is more often than not all sewed up by November.

Moser:  Too many contenders is a very good problem to have.  

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