Wednesday, January 15, 2014

You Want Oscar Nomination Predictions? I'll Give You Some Oscar Nomination Predictions!

Oscar nomination day is almost upon us!!!  It's kind of like Christmas morning, because you get up super early and wish that you get the things you've been thinking about all year long.  I am pretty notorious for throwing too much caution to the wind when it comes to predicting the nominations themselves, so I might be hanging my head on Thursday morning.  I am going to try and predict the nominations for every single category (yes, even those pesky small ones that no one knows about).  Here we go.  

Best Animated Short
Get a Horse!
The Missing Scarf
Mr. Hublot
Room on a Broom

A lot of audiences know Horse! from seeing Frozen already.  I tried looking up the different kind of animation that were used in each of the finalists.  I like Broom, because it's about a witch and her orange tabby cat.  Look out Ulysses!  There's another feline in town.

Best Live Action Short
Tiger Boy
The Voorman Problem

They usually pick shorts in this category with nice production value.  I may have picked selections that were too light, though.  I always feel super depressed after seeing these.  Helium looks gorgeous (check out the trailer) and Voorman features Martin Freeman and Tom Hollander.

Best Documentary Short
Facing Fear
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

I might be running a risk having too many Nazi themed shorts.  Fear is about how a former neo-Nazi and his gay victim meet after 25 years have passed since they last saw each other.  Lady follows Alice Herz Sommer, the world's oldest Holocaust survivor and details her recipe for living a happier life.  The doc shorts tend to tug your heartstrings.  

Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Ernest & Celestine
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

Frozen is in.  I won't bet against Pixar just yet, so I am including Monsters.  I almost went with Despicable Me 2 instead of Ernest, but I always pick something most people haven't heard of in this category.  Sorry, minions.  Maybe when The Minions Movie comes out?

Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
The Squre
Stories We Tell
20 Feet from Stardom

While I would love to see Blackfish take this, it's between 20 Feet and Stories.

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
The Hunt, Denmark
The Grandmaster, Hong Kong
The Great Beauty, Italy

I actually haven't seen...any...of these.  I just missed them when they came to Pittsburgh, so it's really all my fault.  I think the costumes and cinematography could propel Grandmaster in, and I've heard Broken Circle is absolutely devastating.  I wish Blue is the Warmest Color was eligible to give it some sexiness/controversy.  

Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Iron Man 3
Lone Survivor

Best Sound Mixing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

I SUCK at predicting the sound categories.  I usually pick the loudest or the one with the most gunfire, and then slightly differ the categories.  Inside should get into Mixing for its music, and Gravity should dominate the technical categories.  I will get these mostly wrong, and I'm fine with it.  

Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim

I was surprised that certain movies were excluded from the Academy's shortlist for this category.  Man of Steel would have been included, but The Lone Ranger and World War Z were included in its place.  They should really call this category Runners-Up to Gravity.  Like, seriously.  I figured Elysium would be included since it bears a striking resemblance to District 9.

Best Original Score
All is Lost
The Book Thief
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Normally, I am very on top of this category.  I try to sample as much music as I can from the year's films.  I love Steven Price's Gravity, and Hans Zimmer's work on 12 Years reminds me so much of the movie.  Everyone keeps insisting John Williams will be up for The Book Thief, but I can't figure out why.  Alex Ebert won the Golden Globe last week for Lost, so I am throwing him in there.  Maybe his hair will be even more insane.  

Best Original Son
"Let It Go" from Frozen
"Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby
"The Moon Song" from Her
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"So You Know What It's Like" from Short Term 12

This category is always messed up, so we shall see.  There is always something completely random nominated, so I am bound to be wrong.  I think the songs from Frozen and Gatsy are locked in.  Karen O's "Moon" fits nicely into the movie, and the Academy usually wants the song somewhere in the movie.  "So You Know" is a great moment from the Short Term 12, and it is sadly going to be the movie's best chance at any sort of nomination.  

Best Production Design
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
12 Years a Slave

There is no way you can discount two things in this category: Catherine Martin and those damn hobbits.  Martin, who always collaborates with husband Baz Luhrmann, has been nominated for her production design work in three other Luhrmann films.  She won twice (also costume design) for Moulin Rouge! back in 2001.  Plus, the design of Gatsby is sick.  Gatsby's mansion...those parties...thoooose parties made me want to abuse alcohol and then puke all over the marble floors.  Peter Jackson's Middle Earth films have received nominations in this category every single time whether they are chasing a ring or following Bilbo.  The line between art direction and visual effects is very fine, and Avatar won in this category in 2009, so I am including Gravity.  My riskiest choice is Her.  Throwing caution to the wind there when I could have picked Saving Mr. Banks or Inside Llewyn Davis.  No guts, no glory, right?

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Long Ranger

I was wondering when they re-titled this category (added the hairstyling to it) when the hair would become a noticeable player and not just the makeup.  Hustle is Hair: The Motion Picture.  The first time you see Christian Bale, he's construction an elaborate toupee, and Jennifer Lawrence, Amy Adams and Bradley Cooper all have fun with hair pieces.  I won't even acknowledge the second movie listed, just don't say I didn't warn you/call it.

Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Editing is a key factor in the Best Picture game.  

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Or the most costumes of the year?  Invisible, although invisible to audience's consciousnesses, should get in here, because of this big costumes.  They love huge designs for costumes (see The Young Victoria, Memoirs of a Geisha, Marie Antoinette, the list goes on and on), and they generally overlook anything remotely modern.  I'm still not over Black Swan's omission a few years back.  Could Her get in for Joaquin Phoenix's colorful shirts or the waistpants that are begging to be sold at Urban Outfitters?

Best Cinematography
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave

I'll be honest.  I don't know much about cinematography, and I generally pick the prettiest looking movies.  I think a lot of voters might actually do the same thing.  

Don't mess with Roger Deakins.  I hope he will get in for his moody, dark, rainy Prisoners.  Inside almost feels black and white because of the palette, and the Ulysses the cat is a bright burst of orange color.  They will also blow a big one over the black and white photography in Nebraska.  A lot of the shots of 12 Years are absolutely haunting.  The way Steve McQueen lets the camera sit there and watch is stunning.  

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Inside Llewyn Davis

There are so many great scripts this year.  I think in a weaker year, the field would be a lot wider open.  Maybe Fruitvale Station or Enough Said break into the Original race?  Perhaps August: Osage County sneaks into Adapted?  But what would they knock out?  I think they are pretty solid.

All right!  Here we are--the top six categories.  Also known as the six categories you suffered to get to.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Lawrence's a runaway sensation.  She shines in a loud, truly supporting role.  Roberts provides some incredible work in August.  I think Oprah stays in, because the movie was nominated in three categories at the Screen Actors Guild.  She's Oprah.  I don't really need another argument.  Everyone was in that movie and everyone loves her.  Will someone overshadow her since the movie came out so long ago?  Maybe, but I doubt it.  If someone in waiting in the wings, it's Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine, and, if that happens, I will scream like crazy, little girl.  

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

I couldn't figure out who I wanted to put here.  Leto is picking up everything, so he's a lock.  Daniel Bruhl received Golden Globe and SAG nominations for Rush, but I swapped him out for Gandolfini.  Yes, I know posthumous nominations don't happen often, but I want it to so badly.  I think they are going to go for Hustle in a big way, so I threw Cooper in as well.  I am sweating over this one.  

Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

THIS CATEGORY IS GIVING ME A HEADACHE!!!  For months, it was Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Thompson and Meryl Streep.  And then along came American effing Hustle, and it threw everything out of whack because of Adams.  I want Meryl Streep in there, because it will be a line up of women over 45 that have already won before.  It would fucking fantastic.  Buuuuut if Cooper gets in Supporting, then I think Amy get in Lead.  I don't know how you take out Meryl Streep from this category, because she's awesome in August: Osage County, but I guess screaming on a toilet gets you there.  

Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

I forgot how tight this race was.  Robert Redford was in here for a while for his one man show, All is Lost, but I think he's going to get knocked out by Leo's fearless performance in Wall Street (I wonder what Leo's Oscar clip would be...snorting coke out of a hooker's ass perhaps?).  This is one of the most competitive Best Actor race in years, and I feel like everyone has a really awesome shot at winning.  

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

I usually go with the DGA nominations for Best Director, but I wasn't sure.  For a while I had Spike Jonze for Her up there (and that could still happen), and Martin Scorsese was there (DGA nominated).  How do I pass up Marty?  I don't know!  Maybe the reaction to Wall Street will only get it so far?  Too polarizing?  That limb I'm sitting on is getting miiiighty heavy...

Best Picture
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

I always predict ten nominees even though I know it's difficult for that to happen with the voting system.  I put Blue Jasmine in there as a passion plea.  It was nominated by the Producers Guild, so it's not totally out there.  The Butler is in there, because I figured either that or August would get in with their big ensemble casts (both nominated for SAG).  Maybe Philomena gets in.  Or Inside Llewyn Davis.  Or August: Osage County.  It's been a pretty solid year for movies, and this is a pretty solid roster, if you ask me.  

So, there you have it!!!  What do you think?  Am I totally nuts?  The nominations are announced at 8:30 tomorrow morning, so we shall see how batshit I really am.  


  1. Will you even be able to sleep tonight?

    1. It's seriously like Christmas Eve in my house right now.